Dutch and German researchers have come up with a system, called the Thyroid Events Amsterdam Score, that allows them to predict with some accuracy the risk that a women with relatives who have autoimmune thyroid disease will herself develop hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism within five years. The study looked at 790 women, from 18 to 65, who had at least one one first- or second-degree relative with confirmed autoimmune thyroid disease.
The researchers measured TSH, free thyroxine (Free T4) and thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPO-AB/anti-TPO) levels yearly, over five years. What they found was that TSH and TPO-AB lieves were risk factors for future thyroid problems, and family background was also a risk factor. The greatest risk was among women with TSH levels above 2.0*, and/or two relatives with Hashimoto’s disease.
The weighting of the system identified scores of low (1-7), medium (8-10), high (11-15) and very high (16-21). The corresponding risks of thyroid problems developing in five years tracked with the scores, and were 2.7% (low), 14.6% (medium), 27.1% (high) and 76.9% (very high).
* Note: the current "normal range" for TSH tests in the U.S. typically runs from 0.5 to 5.5, although there is controversy about this TSH reference range, as some doctors want the range to be lowered to 0.3 to 3.0.
Source: Strieder, Thea MD; et. al. "Prediction of Progression to Overt Hypothyroidism or Hyperthyroidism in Female Relatives of Patients With Autoimmune Thyroid Disease Using the Thyroid Events Amsterdam (THEA) Score," Archives of Internal Medicine. 2008;168(15):1657-1663. Vol. 168 No. 15, Aug 11/25, 2008
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The risk score is a very interesting idea. How does one actually calculate it? What is the equation?
Would love a copy of this tool…can it be posted for use in a clinical setting?